Island Climate Update 201 - June 2017

Download the PDF: Island Climate Update 201

The tropical Pacific continued to exhibit an ENSO(El Niño –Southern Oscillation) neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during May 2017, although is now close to the threshold of a weak El Niño. Across the entire equatorial Pacific, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near or marginally above normal.
International guidance still suggests that a transition toward El Niño conditions over the next three month period (June –August 2017) is more likely than not, with a 57% chance, versus 42% chance for persistence of the current ENSO neutral state.
Compared to last month, the forecast is less aggressive on El Niño development, now reaching a peak (60% chance) during the August-October 2017 period versus 69% last month.

 

June to August 2017 rainfall forecast

June to August 2017 rainfall forecast

 

Regional drought potential advisory

Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months

Regional drought potential advisory

 

Nauru, Kiribati Gilbert Islands: Normal or well below normal rainfall experienced over the past 6 months. No clear guidance was available over the next 3 months.

Southern Cook Islands, New Caledonia: Normal or well below normal rainfall experienced over 3 of the past 6 months. Below normal rainfall is forecast for New Caledonia over the next 3 months while normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the southern Cook Islands.