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9 May 2016
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño conditions weakened further in April 2016.
Neutral conditions are forecast to return over the coming three months (May – July 2016).
Chances for a transition to La Niña conditions later this year have increased.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
The SPCZ is expected to be positioned east of climatological position in the eastern Pacific.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
Below normal rainfall is forecast for the southern Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga, southern Vanuatu, Fiji, northern Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia.
Above normal rainfall is forecast for the northern Cook Islands, Tokelau, Tuvalu and the Marquesas.
Above normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for the Marquesas.
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