Introduction

• El Niño conditions weakened further in April 2016.
• Neutral conditions are forecast to return over the coming three months (May – July 2016).
• Chances for a transition to La Niña conditions later this year have increased.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned east of climatological position in the eastern Pacific.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for the southern Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga, southern Vanuatu, Fiji, northern Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia.
• Above normal rainfall is forecast for the northern Cook Islands, Tokelau, Tuvalu and the Marquesas.
• Above normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for the Marquesas.