El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
  • El Niño conditions weakened further in April 2016.
  • Neutral conditions are forecast to return over the coming three months (May – July 2016).
  • Chances for a transition to La Niña conditions later this year have increased.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

  • The SPCZ is expected to be positioned east of climatological position in the eastern Pacific.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  • Below normal rainfall is forecast for the southern Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga, southern Vanuatu, Fiji, northern Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia.
  • Above normal rainfall is forecast for the northern Cook Islands, Tokelau, Tuvalu and the Marquesas.
  • Above normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for the Marquesas.
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