El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • El Niño conditions weakened in March 2016.
  • El Niño conditions are still likely (80 % chance) to be present over the coming season (April – June 2016).
  • All  models forecast a return to neutral conditions or a transition to La Niña by July – September 2016.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

  • The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north and east of climatological position in the eastern Pacific.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  •  Below normal rainfall is forecast for the southern Cook Islands, Niue, southern Vanuatu, the Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Tonga and northern Vanuatu. 

  • Above normal rainfall is forecast for the northern Cook Islands, western Kiribati, Tokelau and Tuvalu.
  • Above normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati and the Marquesas.
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