Island Climate Update 187 - April 2016
19 April 2016
El Niño conditions continued in the Tropical Pacific during March 2016, but the current event has clearly entered its decaying phase.
The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.
The dynamical models are in agreement to forecast continuing, but progressively weakening El Niño conditions for the April – June 2016 period (80% chance).
Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.