Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• Strong El Niño conditions continued in February 2015.  
• El Niño is currently in its decay phase, down from peak conditions reached towards the end of 2015. 
• El Niño is extremely likely (99% chance) to continue over the coming season (March – May 2016).

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north and east of climatological position.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

•  Below normal rainfall is forecast for the southern Cook Islands, New Caledonia, Samoa, Tonga, southern Vanuatu, Wallis & Futuna, Fiji, Niue, northern Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia.

• Above normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati, Western Kiribati, the Marquesas, the Northern Cook Islands, Tokelau, the Tuamotu archipelago and Tuvalu.
• Above normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati and the Marquesas.