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8 March 2016
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Strong El Niño conditions continued in February 2015.
El Niño is currently in its decay phase, down from peak conditions reached towards the end of 2015.
El Niño is extremely likely (99% chance) to continue over the coming season (March – May 2016).
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north and east of climatological position.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
Below normal rainfall is forecast for the southern Cook Islands, New Caledonia, Samoa, Tonga, southern Vanuatu, Wallis & Futuna, Fiji, Niue, northern Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia.
Above normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati, Western Kiribati, the Marquesas, the Northern Cook Islands, Tokelau, the Tuamotu archipelago and Tuvalu.
Above normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati and the Marquesas.
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