Jump to Navigation
Skip to main content
Information and resources
State of the Climate
Seasonal Climate Outlook
New Zealand Climate Update
Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Island Climate Update
Daily climate maps
Coasts and Oceans
Freshwater and Estuaries
Oil and gas sector
High Performance Computing Facility
Localised event forecasting
News & publications
ICES Expert Working Group Meetings – April 2017
Education & training
Institutes we work with
Science and Technology Fairs
Statement of Core Purpose
Statement of Corporate Intent
Our partners & funders
Careers at NIWA
10 February 2016
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Strong El Niño conditions continued in January 2015.
El Niño has probably reached its peak towards the end of 2015.
El Niño is highly likely (96% chance) to continue over the coming season (February– April 2016).
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north and east of climatological position.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
Below normal rainfall is forecast for New Caledonia, Samoa, Tonga, northern Vanuatu, Wallis & Futuna, Niue, Fiji, southern Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia.
Above normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati, Western Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Northern Cook Islands, the Marquesas and Tokelau.
Above normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati abd the Marquesas.
ICU 185 cover