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10 February 2016
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Strong El Niño conditions continued in January 2015.
El Niño has probably reached its peak towards the end of 2015.
El Niño is highly likely (96% chance) to continue over the coming season (February– April 2016).
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north and east of climatological position.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
Below normal rainfall is forecast for New Caledonia, Samoa, Tonga, northern Vanuatu, Wallis & Futuna, Niue, Fiji, southern Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia.
Above normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati, Western Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Northern Cook Islands, the Marquesas and Tokelau.
Above normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati abd the Marquesas.
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