Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • Strong El Niño conditions continued in January 2015.  
  •  El Niño has probably reached its peak towards the end of 2015.
  • El Niño is highly likely (96% chance) to continue over the coming season (February– April 2016).

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

  • The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north and east of climatological position.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  •  Below normal rainfall is forecast for New Caledonia, Samoa, Tonga, northern Vanuatu, Wallis & Futuna, Niue, Fiji, southern Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia.

  • Above normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati, Western Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Northern Cook Islands, the Marquesas and Tokelau.
  • Above normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati abd the Marquesas.
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