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25 January 2016
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Strong El Niño conditions continued in December 2015.
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) anomalies weakened slightly in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific but still exceed +2°C.
El Niño is certain (100% chance) to continue over the coming season (January – March 2016).
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north and east of climatology.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
Below normal rainfall is forecast for New Caledonia, the southern Cook Islands, Samoa, southern Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna, Niue, Tonga, Fiji, northern Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia.
Above normal rainfall is forecast for eastern Kiribati, western Kiribati, Tuvalu and Tokelau.
Above normal SSTs are forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati, the Marquesas and the northern Cook Islands.
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