Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  •  Strong El Niño conditions continued in December 2015.  
  •  Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) anomalies weakened slightly in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific but still exceed +2°C.
  •  El Niño is certain (100% chance) to continue over the coming season (January – March 2016).  

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

  • The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north and east of climatology.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  •  Below normal rainfall is forecast for New Caledonia, the southern Cook Islands, Samoa, southern Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna, Niue, Tonga, Fiji, northern Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia.

  • Above normal rainfall is forecast for eastern Kiribati, western Kiribati, Tuvalu and Tokelau.
  • Above normal SSTs are forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati, the Marquesas and the northern Cook Islands.
ICU 184 cover