Island Climate Update 184 - January 2016

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

25 January 2016

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Download ICU 184 (PDF 1.1 MB)

Download ICU Water Watch (PDF 350 KB)

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Island Climate Update

In this issue

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    Introduction

    Strong El Niño conditions continued in December 2015.

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    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    Strong El Niño conditions continued to dominate the Tropical Pacific during December 2015.

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    South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast January to March 2016

    The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

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    Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: January to March 2016

    The dynamical models are all in agreement to forecast continuing strong El Niño conditions for the January – March 2016 period.

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    ICU Water Watch

    Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.

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    Data Sources

    Sources of South Pacific rainfall data.