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9 December 2015
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Strong El Niño conditions continued in November 2015.
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) anomalies exceed +2°C over large areas of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific
El Niño is certain (100% chance) to continue over the coming season (December 2015 – February 2016).
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north and east of climatology.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
Below normal rainfall is forecast for New Caledonia, southern Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna, the southern Cook Islands, Samoa, Fiji, Niue, Tonga, northern Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia.
Above normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati, Western Kiribati, the northern Cook Island, Tuvalu and Tokelau.
Above normal SSTs are forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati and the Marquesas.
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