Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  •  Strong El Niño conditions continued in November 2015.  
  •  Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) anomalies exceed +2°C over large areas of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific
  •  El Niño is certain (100% chance) to continue over the coming season (December 2015 – February 2016).

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

  • The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north and east of climatology.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  •  Below normal rainfall is forecast for New Caledonia, southern Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna, the southern Cook Islands, Samoa, Fiji, Niue, Tonga, northern Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia.

  • Above normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati, Western Kiribati, the northern Cook Island, Tuvalu and Tokelau.
  • Above normal SSTs are forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati and the Marquesas.
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Have a question about the South Pacific climate? Ask an expert: a.lorrey@niwa.co.nz