Strong El Niño conditions persisted in October 2015.
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and precipitation anomalies continued to intensify in the central and eastern Pacific
El Niño is certain (100% chance) to continue over the coming season (November 2015 – January 2016).
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north of climatology in the central Pacific.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, New Caledonia, Wallis & Futuna, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Fiji, Samoa, Vanuatu, the Federated States of Micronesia, the southern Cook Islands, Niue and Tonga.
Above normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati, Western Kiribati, Tuvalu and Tokelau.
Above normal SSTs are forecast for western Kiribati and eastern Kiribati.
ICU 182 cover
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