Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  •  Strong El Niño conditions were established in September  2015. 
  •  Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and precipitation anomalies continued to intensify in the eastern Pacific
  •  El Niño is virtually certain (99% chance) to continue in October – December 2015.  

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

  • The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north of climatology.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  •  Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, New Caledonia, the Society Islands, Wallis & Futuna, the Federated States of Micronesia, the southern Cook Islands, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga and Fiji.
  • Above normal rainfall is forecast for eastern Kiribati, western Kiribati and Tuvalu.

  • Above normal SSTs are forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati and the Marquesas.
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Have a question about the South Pacific climate? Ask an expert: a.lorrey@niwa.co.nz