Strong El Niño conditions were established in September 2015.
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and precipitation anomalies continued to intensify in the eastern Pacific
El Niño is virtually certain (99% chance) to continue in October – December 2015.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north of climatology.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, New Caledonia, the Society Islands, Wallis & Futuna, the Federated States of Micronesia, the southern Cook Islands, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga and Fiji.
Above normal rainfall is forecast for eastern Kiribati, western Kiribati and Tuvalu.
Above normal SSTs are forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati and the Marquesas.
ICU 181 cover
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