Island Climate Update 180 - September 2015

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

15 September 2015

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Download ICU 180 (PDF 675 KB)

Download ICU Water Watch (PDF 340 KB)

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Island Climate Update

In this issue

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    Introduction

    El Niño conditions continued to strengthen further during August 2015.

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    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    El Niño conditions strengthened further during August 2015 and reached the strong El Niño category.

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    South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast September to November 2015

    The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

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    Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: September to November 2015

    The dynamical models are all in agreement to forecast continuing El Niño conditions over the September-November 2015 period.

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    ICU Water Watch

    Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.

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    Data sources

    Sources of South Pacific rainfall data