Island Climate Update 178 - July 2015

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

03 July 2015

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

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Island Climate Update

In this issue

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    Introduction

    El Niño conditions consolidated in June 2015.

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    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have increased considerably in the central and eastern Pacific. After a brief excursion in the positive, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has returned to negative values (i.e. El Niño) and is at -0.8 for June 2015 as a whole.

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    South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast July to September 2015

    The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

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    Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: July to September 2015

    The dynamical model are all in agreement to forecast continuing El Niño conditions over the July – September 2015 period. As a consequence, rainfall totals for the coming seasons are expected to be higher than normal along the Equator in the central and eastern Pacific, while many regions of the southwest Pacific are forecast to experience a drier than normal July- September season.

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    ICU Water Watch

    Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.

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    Data sources

    Sources of South Pacific rainfall data