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South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast February to April 2015

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models.

The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every five degrees of longitude.

The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is forecast to be positioned to the north of normal during the February to April 2015 period. Areas of higher than normal convective activity are expected along the SPCZ from the Bismarck Archipelago extending across to the east of the International Dateline near Samoa. Confidence in the forecast is highest to the west of the International Dateline.

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models. The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every five degrees of longitude. The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.

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