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South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast December 2014 to February 2015

10 December 2014

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models.

The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every five degrees of longitude.

The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.

For December 2014 - February 2015, the SPCZ is forecast to be located northeast of normal for this time of year.

Enhanced convection is expected to the west of the International Dateline in many models, with the general branching location of the SPCZ located east of normal. The uncertainty in the SPCZ position is greatest to the east of the International Dateline.

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models. The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every five degrees of longitude. The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.