Introuction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• Borderline El Niño conditions persisted in the Pacific during October
• Chances for El Niño developing over the November 2014 – January 2015 period are 66%.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned close to normal for the coming three months.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Northern Cook Islands, New Caledonia, Tonga, Fiji, the Marquesas and Vanuatu.

• Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for western Kiribati, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and the Austral Islands.

• Above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are forecast for western Kiribati, and normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for the Austral Islands, eastern Kiribati, the Federated States of Micronesia, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, the Society Islands, the Solomon Islands, Tokelau and Tonga.