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Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • Borderline El Niño conditions returned in the Pacific during September 2014.

  • Oceanic and atmospheric indicators are pointing in the direction of a possible weak El Niño event developing.

  • Chances for El Niño over the October – December 2014 period are 67%, increasing to 72% in December 2014 – February 2015.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

  • The SPCZ is expected to be positioned close to normal for the coming three months.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  • Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas, New Caledonia, Samoa, the Society Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, the Northern Cook Islands, Fiji, Tokelau, the Tuamotu archipelago and Wallis & Futuna.

  • Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, the Solomon Islands, Eastern Kiribati, Niue and Papua New Guinea.

  • Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, the Solomon Islands, Eastern Kiribati, Niue and Papua New Guinea.

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