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South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast September to November 2014

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models.

The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every five degrees of longitude.

The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.

For September – November 2014, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is forecast to sit close to normal for the time of year. Enhanced convective activity can be expected to the north of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. Uncertainty in the position of the SPCZ is greatest to the east of the Dateline.

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models. The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every five degrees of longitude. The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.