Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain warmer than normal in the Pacific but are below El Niño thresholds.

• Despite the Southern Oscillation Index being currently negative, the atmosphere has yet to couple to the ocean.

• Chances for El Niño over the September – November 2014 period are about 55%, increasing to about 70% later in the summer.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned close to normal for the coming three months.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas, the Society Islands, Tonga, the Tuamotu archipelago, Vanuatu, the Northern Cook Islands, Fiji, New Caledonia, Tokelau, Tuvalu and Wallis & Futuna.

• Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, the Southern Cook Islands and Eastern Kiribati.

• Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for Western Kiribati and Eastern Kiribati.