Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have eased off in the central and eastern Pacific but remain warmer than normal in the western Pacific.

• The atmosphere has yet to respond to the ocean in order to initiate an El Niño event.

• Chances for El Niño over the August – October 2014 period remain at about 70%.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned close to normal for the coming three months.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Samoa, the Society Islands, Tonga, Wallis & Futuna, the northern Cook Islands, Fiji, the Marquesas, New Caledonia, Tokelau, Tuvalu and Vanuatu.

• Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for Niue, the southern Cook Islands, eastern Kiribati, western Kiribati and the Federated States of Micronesia.

• Above normal SSTs are forecast for Eastern Kiribati. Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for Western Kiribati, the Federated States of Micronesia and the Solomon Islands.