Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain warmer than normal in the central and eastern Pacific, at or above El Niño thresholds.

• The atmosphere has yet to show anomalies typical of El Niño.

• Chances for El Niño over the July - September 2014 period are about 70%, increasing to about 80% in October - December.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned mostly close to normal for the coming three months.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Papua New Guinea, the Northern Cook Islands, the Marquesas, New Caledonia, the Society Islands, Tokelau, the Tuamotu archipelago, Tuvalu and Vanuatu.

• Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Federated States of Micronesia, the Southern Cook Islands, Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati.

• Above normal SSTs are forecast for Eastern Kiribati. Normal or below normal SSTs are forecast for the southern Cook Islands, the Austral Islands, Pitcairn Island and the Society Islands