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South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast June to August 2014

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models.

The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every five degrees of longitude.

The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.

For June - August 2014, the SPCZ is expected to sit close to its normal position. Climate forecasts indicate the SPCZ will be most clearly defined to the west of the International Dateline.

Intense convection is expected near the Bismarck Archipelago, NW Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands during this time.