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South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast May to July 2014

6 May 2014

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models.

The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every  five degrees of longitude.

The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.

The ensemble of dynamical forecasts indicates that the SPCZ is expected to be located close to normal in the western Pacific and slightly south of its climatological position towards the east.

In general, the models indicate weak SPCZ activity with the transition into winter, with some localized convection over the Bismarck Sea and the Solomon Islands.

The ensemble of globalclimate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher thannormal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. The green line indicates theaverage SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eightclimate models. The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and twostandard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ positionevery  five degrees of longitude. Thepurple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convectiondeveloping within the SPCZ.