Island Climate Update 164 - May 2014

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

06 May 2014

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Download Island Climate Update - May 2014 164 (PDF 735 KB) 

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Island Climate Update

In this issue

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    Introduction

    The tropical Pacific remains in a neutral ENSO state in April 2014, but models forecasts and current indicators collectively suggest El Niño is likely by the middle of the year.

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    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    The tropical Pacific Ocean remained in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April 2014. However patterns of atmospheric and especially oceanic anomalies clearly indicate that an El Niño is currently developing.

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    South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast May to July 2014

    The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position

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    Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: May to July 2014

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    Data Sources

    Sources of South Pacific rainfall data