Forecast validation
Forecast period: October to December
Areas of average to above average rainfall were expected from Papua New Guinea southeast to the Austral Islands of French Polynesia, as well as western Kiribati. Average to below average rainfalls were forecast for Tuvalu to the Marquesas, including the Samoa, Tokelau, Eastern Kiribati, the Northern Cooks, and Pitcairn Island. Near average rainfalls were expected in most other parts of the tropical Southwest Pacific.
This scenario was correct for Papua-New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Western Kiribati, Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, and the Marquesas and Austral Islands. Rainfall was lower than expected for most islands south of 15°S, but higher than forecast for Tuvalu, Samoa, Eastern Kiribati, the Society and Tuamotu islands, and Pitcairn Island.