Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 

• The ocean - atmosphere system in the Tropical Pacific displayed some patterns reminiscent of a weak La Niña.
• The Pacific is currently in a neutral ENSO state.
• The international consensus indicates that neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist for the coming three months (August to October 2013).

 The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) 

• The SPCZ is forecast to be positioned slightly south of normal for the coming three months.
  

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts 

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati.
• Near normal or below normal rainfall is expected for the Northern Cook Islands, Tuvalu, the Federated States of Micronesia, Western Kiribati and the Marquesas.
• Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Tonga and Samoa.
• Near or above average SST is forecast for Niue and Tonga.