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Island Climate Update 153 - June 2013

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region. 

Download ICU 153 as a PDF (728 kB)

Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • Sea surface temperatures are slightly cooler than average in the eastern equatorial Pacific, but close to normal elsewhere along the Equator.
  • All oceanic and atmospheric ENSO indicators are in the neutral range.
  • The international consensus indicates that neutral ENSO conditions will persist for the coming three months (June to August 2013).

South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast June to August 2013

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of 8 climate models. The white vertical bars and 'whiskers' indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every 5 degrees of longitude.