South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast February to April 2013

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of 8 climate models. The white vertical bars and 'whiskers' indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every 5 degrees of longitude. 

For the coming three months, the dynamical models indicate that the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is likely to sit slightly south of its climatological position over the southwest Pacific. The uncertainty in the SPCZ location for the forecast period is high, especially to the east of the Dateline.