Introduction
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- The Tropical Pacific Ocean is slightly cooler than normal along the Equator to the east of the Dateline, and warmer than normal in the Western Pacific Warm Pool.
Island Climate Update 149 - February 2013
6 March 2013
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Download ICU 149 as a PDF (650 kB)
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
The conditions in the tropical Pacific are neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). While the equatorial Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific are currently slightly cooler than normal, they fall within the neutral range. All atmospheric indicators are close to their climatological values.
South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast February to April 2013
The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of 8 climate models. The white vertical bars and 'whiskers' indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every 5 degrees of longitude.
Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: February to April 2013
The tropical Pacific is currently slightly cooler than normal along the Equator to the east of the Dateline, and warmer to the west. The dynamical models indicate that both the ITCZ and the SPCZ will be situated south of their climatological positions for February 2012 – April 2013.
Data Sources
Sources of South Pacific rainfall data