Island Climate Update 140 - May 2012

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region. 

Download ICU 140

Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • The Equatorial Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral ENSO state, with remnant anomalies from the La Niña event that has just concluded. Most dynamical and statistical climate models suggest ENSO neutral conditions for late autumn and early winter. Some long range models indicate El Niño could develop by austral spring.

Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: May to July 2012

The end of the recent La Niña event is now evident in many oceanic and atmospheric indicators. The ensemble of dynamical models indicate dry conditions over and to the East of the dateline south of the Equator, while wet conditions are expected north of the Equator and along a southwest-shifted South Pacific Convergence Zone.