Introduction
19 January 2012
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- ENSO diagnostics indicate La Niña conditions exist in the EquatorialPacific Ocean. Many dynamical and statistical climate models suggest La Nina will continue to persist at least moderate strength through summer.
Tropical cyclone forecast for 2011 -12 season
- Below average numbers likely, but increased activity in the lateseason near North Queensland and French Polynesia.
- Five to eight named storms are likely for the current season.
- Two named storms developed in the ICU forecast region duringDecember 2011.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Below normal rainfall is forecast for Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Tuamotuarchipelago, Western Kiribati and the Northern Cook Islands in the coming three months.
- Above normal rainfall is expected for Vanuatu, New Caledonia,Tonga, Fiji, Niue and the Southern Cook Islands.
- Below normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are forecast forTokelau, the Tuamotu Archipelago, Western Kiribati, Eastern Kiribati, the Northern Cook Islands, and the Marquesas, while above normal SSTs are expected for the Austral Islands, New Caledonia and Tonga.
