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Island Climate Update 134 - November 2011

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region 

Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • Multiple ENSO indicators show La Niña has re-emerged in theEquatorial Pacific Ocean. Many dynamical and statistical climate models suggest La Nina will continue to develop during late spring, and persist at least through the middle of summer.

Tropical cyclone forecast for 2011 -12 season

  • Below average numbers likely, but increased activity in the lateseason near North Queensland and French Polynesia.
  • Five to eight named storms are likely for the coming season.