Introduction
2 August 2011
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- La Niña in the equatorial Pacific region has ended, and conditions arein the neutral range. Many dynamical and statistical climate models suggest ENSO neutral conditions will exist during austral winter and into spring.
Summary of tropical cyclone activity for 2010-11 season
- Nine tropical cyclones (TCs) occurred in the SW Pacific region thisseason, with an estimated cost of damages exceeding $3.5 Billion USD.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Near normal or below normal rainfall is expected for the NorthernCook Islands, Tuvalu and Pitcairn Island.
- Above normal rainfall is expected for Tonga, Papua New Guinea andNiue.
- Below normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for the NorthernCook Islands.
