Introduction

Introduction to Island Climate Update 113 - February 2010

Number 113 - February 2010

January’s climate

• The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was displaced northeast of normal.

• Suppressed convection in the central part of the Southwest Pacific near Vanuatu, Fiji, Niue and Tonga.

• Mostly well below normal rainfall for many parts of New Caledonia, Fiji and Vanuatu.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal rainfall, and sea surface temperature forecasts

• El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific. Many dynamical climate models project the continuation of El Niño through early autumn 2010.

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, Vanuatu, Niue, and Tonga.

• Above normal rainfall is expected for Western Kiribati, Eastern Kiribati, Tokelau, Tuvalu and the Society Islands.

• Above normal SSTs are forecast for Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati. Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for the Northern Cook Islands, Tuvalu, Tokelau, and all of French Polynesia. SSTs are expected to be near or below normal around Fiji, Niue, Tonga and Pitcairn Island.

 

 

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