Introduction

Number 110 - November 2009

October’s climate

• South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is contracted toward Papua New Guinea, and shows north-eastward movement to the east of the Date Line.
• Enhanced convection exists about the Equator from Western Kiribati to Eastern Kiribati.
• Below normal rainfall for several stations in Fiji, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga, and in parts of Australia occurred in October, but very high rainfall was recorded in the Solomon Islands and French Polynesia.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal rainfall, and sea surfacetemperature forecasts

• El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific. Many dynamical climate models project the continuation of El Niño through 2009 and into 2010.
• Average or below average rainfall is very likely near New Caledonia, Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Niue, Tonga, the Southern Cook Islands, the Austral Islands, and the Marquesas. Below average rainfall is forecast for Samoa.
• Enhanced convection is likely to continue along the Equator, with above average rainfall for Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati. Near or above normal rainfall is expected for Tokelau and Tuvalu.
• Above normal SSTs are forecast for Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati. Average or below average SSTs are forecast for Fiji and Tonga.

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