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Island Climate Update 100 - January 2009

January

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

Feature article

Monthly average strike rate statistics for the ICU (January 2001-October 2008).

Long term trend in ICU strike rate, January 2001-present.

The Centennial Issue of the Island Climate Update: Progress and success resulting from a multi-model ensemble forecast
Andrew Lorrey, Jim Salinger, and James Renwick (NIWA)
The strength of the Island Climate Update (ICU) forecast is drawn from two primary sources: a regional discussion about local climate information by Pacific Island Meteorological Services members each month, and external input from international research organisations which produce fo

January

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 100 – January 2009
December’s climate

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was displaced southwest of its normal position.
Very suppressed convection near Western Kiribati and south of the Equator from Nauru east to northern French Polynesia.
Above normal rainfall for few areas in the South Pacific, with a record high in the Southern Cook Islands.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENS

Monthly climate

Climate developments in December 2008

Outgoing Long-wave Radiation anomalies for December 2008. (Click for enlargement and detail)

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) activity was displaced south and west of normal during December, and less consolidated than last month. A region of enhanced rainfall was observed during December 2008 over southern Papua New Guinea and northeast Australia, and to the southeast of New Caledonia.

Three-month outlook

Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: January to March 2009

Rainfall outlook map for January to March 2009. (Click for enlargement)

Sea surface temperature outlook map for January to March 2009. (Click for enlargement)

During the January–March 2009 forecast period, a region of suppressed convection is likely to encompass the central and eastern Southwest Pacific, extending from Western Kiribati to Eastern Kiribati, including Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Northern Cook Islands, and the Tuamotu archipelago. Below normal rainfall is expected.

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Tropical Pacific rainfall - December 2008

Territory and station name
December 2008 rainfall
total (mm)
December 2008 percent
of average

Australia

Cairns Airport
197
107

Townsville Airport
179
137

Brisbane Airport
63
50

Sydney Airport
54
71

Cook Islands

Penrhyn
83
26

Aitutaki
304
145

Rarotonga Airport
471
251

Fiji

Rotuma Island
138
48

Udu Point
309
117

Nadi Airport
271
152

Nausori
239
90

French Polynesia

Hiva Hoa, Atuona
58
58

Bora Bora
150
55

Tahiti – Faa’a
106
30

Tuamotu, Takaroa
105
48

Gambier, Rikitea
216
104

Tubuai
35

Data sources

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations:
American Samoa
Australia
Cook Islands
Fiji
French Polynesia
Kiribati
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Papua New Guinea
Pitcairn Island
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tokelau
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned.
Acknowledgements
This bulletin is produced by NIWA and made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), with addi