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New Zealand Climate Update 126 - December 2009

What happened in November, how our climate outlook for the previous three months turned out, global and local sea temperatures, and our outlook for December to February.

Current Climate - November 2009

It was an extremely windy month. During November 2009, stronger than normal southwest winds affected New Zealand, caused by much deeper lows than usual south of the South Island.

Global Setting - November 2009

El Niño has strengthened during October and November, and is expected to persist at moderate intensity through the summer of 2010 before weakening during the autumn. Over the coming three months, mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal to the north of the country and lower than normal to the south, with stronger than normal south-westerlies over New Zealand.

Outlook - December 2009 to February 2010

Over the coming three months, mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal to the north of the country and lower than normal to the south, with stronger than normal south-westerlies over New Zealand. Temperatures are expected to be near average over the North Island, and average or below average over the South Island. Rainfall is likely to be normal or below normal in the north and east of the North Island, and near normal elsewhere.

Retrospective - September to November Outlook

The climate we predicted and what actually happened.