Outlook - August to October 2009
In the New Zealand region over the three months August-October, mean sea level pressures are likely to transition towards El Niño-like conditions, with enhanced westerly winds at times. Sea surface temperatures near New Zealand are expected to be somewhat below average through August-October.
Temperatures are expected to be near average in all regions.
Rainfall, soil moisture, and stream flows are also likely to be near normal in all regions.
In this example below, the climate models suggest that below normal conditions are likely (50% chance), but, given the variable nature of the climate, the chance of normal or above normal conditions is also shown (30% and 20% respectively).
