Outlook - December 2009 to February 2010
Over the coming three months, mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal to the north of the country and lower than normal to the south, with stronger than normal south-westerlies over New Zealand. Temperatures are expected to be near average over the North Island, and average or below average over the South Island. Rainfall is likely to be normal or below normal in the north and east of the North Island, and near normal elsewhere.
Temperatures are expected to be below average or average in all South Island regions and the west of the North Island, and near average in other North Island regions.
Rainfall is likely to be normal or below normal in the north and east of the North Island, and in Nelson-Marlborough, and near normal elsewhere.
River flows are likely to be below normal in the north and east of both Islands, with soil moistures also likely to be below normal in the east of the South Island. In all other regions, river flows and soil moistures are expected to be normal or below normal for the summer season as a whole.
Tropical cyclone activity in the southwest Pacific is expected to be near-normal through to May. The risk of an ex-tropical cyclone passing close to New Zealand is a little below the long-term average. On average during moderate El Niño conditions, an ex-tropical cyclone passes within 500km of New Zealand in 6 or 7 out of 10 cyclone seasons.
(30% and 20% respectively).