figure_3_omega_vertical_velocity_anomaly_plot_for_analogue_seasons_used_for_the_2011-12_seasonal_forecast_for_november_-_april_2011.png

Figure 3: Omega (vertical velocity) anomaly plot for analogue seasons used for the 2011-12 seasonal forecast for (November – April). The pattern suggests the SPCZ is likely to be displaced southwest of normal, aligning to the southwestern edge of the Solomon Islands and extending to the southeast between Vanuatu and New Caledonia. Despite the reduced TC numbers expected for the coming season, the SPCZ position could also generate anomalously high rainfall in island groups like the Solomons, Vanuatu, and New Caledonia. Plotting tools and data kindly provided by the NOAA/CIRES 20th Century reanalysis. (Click to enlarge)