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New Zealand Climate Update 179 - May 2014

What happened in April, how our climate outlook for the previous three months turned out, global and local sea temperatures, and our outlook for May to July.

Global Setting – April 2014

ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) continued in the equatorial Pacific Ocean in April 2014. However, above normal sea surface temperatures along the equator now cover a significant part of the central and far eastern Pacific; and these warm anomalies are consistent with developing El Niño conditions.

Outlook - May to July 2014

May–July temperatures are forecast to be average for the west of the South Island, above average for the east of the North Island, and average or above average for all remaining regions of New Zealand. Cold snaps and frosts can still be expected in some parts of the country as autumn advances into winter.

May–July rainfall is likely to be in the near-normal range for all regions, except the east of the South Island where normal or above normal rainfall is forecast.

Retrospective - February to April Outlook

In the New Zealand region for February–April 2014, mean sea level pressures were expected to be near normal over New Zealand itself, but with lower pressures than usual to the north of the country and higher pressures than usual well to the east. This circulation pattern was expected to be associated with weak anomalous south-westerly flows over the South Island and easterly flows over the North Island.

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