Outlook - October to December 2011

Science Centres: Climate

ENSO conditions in the tropical Pacific are returning to the La Niña range, and although still currently weak, are expected to continue strengthening. Mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal across New Zealand, with weaker westerlies than normal over the country, on average. Temperatures are likely to be average or above average in all regions, while seasonal rainfall is likely to be normal or below normal in all regions. 

Temperatures are likely to be near average in the east, west and south of the South Island, and average or above average in all other regions.

Seasonal rainfall is likely to be normal or below normal in all regions. Soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be below normal in all regions of the country, except for the west and south of the South Island where normal or below normal soil moisture levels are likely.