Science Centres: Climate

The climate we predicted and what actually happened

Mean sea level pressures for May - July 2010 were thought to be lower than normal south of the country, with stronger than normal westerlies over New Zealand. In actual fact, lower pressures were observed in the Tasman Sea, with higher pressures south of the country, bringing a north east anomaly over the North Island and east anomaly over the South Island.

Predicted rainfall: Rainfall was predicted to be near normal over much of the country, but normal or below normal in eastern regions and normal or above normal in the west and south of the South Island.

Outcome: The reverse was true because of the resultant circulation pattern; rainfall was upper tercile in the east of both islands and much of the north of the North Island, and lower tercile for the west and south of the South Island.  Nelson-Marlborough showed a west/east gradient across the district.  (1/6 regions correct, SWNI).

Predicted air temperature: Temperatures were projected to be above average in the North Island and either average or above average in the South Island.

Outcome: Temperatures were cooler than forecast in the North Island, with near average temperatures received in most regions, although there were small areas of above average in Northland, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. Temperatures were above average in the north and west of the South Island, but average to below average in the east of the South Island.  (2/6 regions correct).