Science Centres: Climate
What happened in March, how our climate outlook for the previous three months turned out, global and local sea temperatures, and our outlook for April to June.
More frequent anticyclones (‘highs’) were located in the Tasman Sea during March, producing enhanced southwesterly winds over New Zealand, consistent with the El Niño which has been present since November 2009. This resulted in an extremely dry March for the north and east of the North Island, and South Canterbury and Otago. Severe soil moisture deficits continue in Northland and Auckland, South Canterbury and Otago. Significant soil moisture deficits have also developed in Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Coromandel, Taupo and parts of Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay.
A significant El Niño event continues in the Tropical Pacific, but conditions are now showing signs of weakening with neutral conditions expected by winter. During April – June, mean sea level pressures are likely to be slightly below normal over the country, with a slightly enhanced westerly flow over New Zealand.
During April - June, mean sea level pressures are likely to be slightly below normal over the country, with a slightly enhanced westerly flow over New Zealand. Temperatures are expected to be above average everywhere. Rainfall is likely to be near normal over much of the country and normal or below normal in the east of the South Island.
The climate we predicted and what actually happened.