Science Centres: Climate

A significant El Niño event continues in the Tropical Pacific, but conditions are likely to weaken towards neutral during the autumn (March-May). During autumn, mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal to the north of the country, with slightly enhanced westerly flow over New Zealand.

Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for the 31st of January to the 27th of February 2010. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).

Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). Estimated SOI mean values: February SOI -1.7; December to February average -1.3.

Differences from normal February surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.

Sea surface temperatures

Sea surface temperatures are expected to be near average or above average around the coasts.