Science Centres: Climate

El Niño conditions are well-established, and are expected to persist at moderate intensity through the rest of the summer, before weakening during the autumn. Over the coming three months, mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal to the north of the country and lower than normal to the south, with stronger than normal westerlies over New Zealand.

Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 6th December to 2nd of January 2010. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).

Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). Estimated SOI mean values: December SOI -1.0; October to December average -1.1.

Differences from normal December surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.

Sea surface temperatures

Sea surface temperatures are expected to be below average around and east of the South Island, but near normal to the north of New Zealand.