Science Centres: Climate

El Niño has strengthened during October and November, and is expected to persist at moderate intensity through the summer of 2010 before weakening during the autumn. Over the coming three months, mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal to the north of the country and lower than normal to the south, with stronger than normal south-westerlies over New Zealand.

Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 1st November to 28th of November 2009. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).

Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). Estimated SOI mean values: November SOI -0.8; September to November average -0.7.

Differences from normal November surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.

Sea surface temperatures

Sea surface temperatures near New Zealand are expected to be below average during December-February.