Science Centres: Climate

Over the coming three months, mean sea level pressures are likely to be lower than normal over the South Island and higher than normal to the north of the country. Temperatures are expected to be near average over the North Island and northern South Island, and average or below average over the rest of the South Island. Rainfall is likely to be normal or below normal in the north and east of the North Island, and near normal elsewhere. River flows and soil moistures are likely to be normal or below normal in all regions.

Temperatures are likely to be near average over the North Island and northern South Island, and average or below average over the rest of the South Island.

Rainfall is likely to be normal or below normal in the north and east of the North Island, and near normal elsewhere. 

River flows and soil moisture levels are likely to be normal or below normal in all regions.

Tropical cyclone activity is likely to be near-normal this season (November – May). The risk of an ex-tropical cyclone passing close to New Zealand is near the long-term average. On average, there is a 9 out of 10 chance of an ex-tropical cyclone passing within 500km of New Zealand during the cyclone season.

In this example below, the climate models suggest that below normal conditions are likely (50% chance), but, given the variable nature of the climate, the chance of normal or above normal conditions is also shown
(30% and 20% respectively).