Science Centres: Climate

Mean sea level pressures are likely to be lower than normal to the north of the country during winter, with an easterly or south-easterly flow anomaly over New Zealand. Sea surface temperatures around New Zealand are expected to be average or below average through the June-August period.

Temperatures are likely to be average in all regions, except for average or below average in the east of the South Island. Cold spells and seasonal frosts are still expected throughout the South Island and central North Island.

Rainfall is likely to be normal or above normal over the northern North Island and eastern regions of both islands, and normal elsewhere.

Soil Moisture is expected to be above normal in the northern North Island; normal or above normal in the remainder of the North Island and the east of the South Island; normal elsewhere in the South Island.

Stream Flows are expected to be above normal in the northern North Island; normal or above normal in the remainder of the North Island and the east of the South Island; normal elsewhere in the South Island.

In this example below, the climate models suggest that below normal conditions are likely (50% chance), but, given the variable nature of the climate, the chance of normal or above normal conditions is also shown (30% and 20% respectively).