Science Centres: Climate
What happened in May, how our last predictions turned out, and what global sea temperatures predict for the climate for June to July.
May 2009 was dominated by the persistence of anticyclones (“highs”) over southern Australia and more depressions (“lows”) than normal passing over and to the east of New Zealand. The average May surface pressure over New Zealand was as much as 8 hPa lower than normal. The persistent anticyclones resulted in more southerly air flows than normal over New Zealand.
The Equatorial Pacific is now in a neutral state, and expected to stay that way over winter, but there is an increasing chance of a transition to El Niño conditions during spring.
Mean sea level pressures are likely to be lower than normal to the north of the country during winter, with an easterly or south-easterly flow anomaly over New Zealand. Sea surface temperatures around New Zealand are expected to be average or below average through the June-August period.
The climate we predicted and what actually happened.